All These Worldwide Conflicts Are Disrupting Flights Between Europe and Asia

It’s gotten harder over the last few years to fly between Europe and Asia, owing to a variety of conflicts in several different regions. 

The closure of airspace in several countries in the Persian Gulf Region, spurred by Iran’s missile strikes on a United States Air Base in Qatar, received significant media attention last week. 

Roughly 20,000 passengers on more than 90 flights operated by Qatar Airways were impacted when those flights diverted to other airports, but the majority of them were reaccommodated quickly on alternate flights to their destinations. Flights operated by the UAE’s Emirates and Bahrain’s Gulf Air were also disrupted, although most of those flights were able to reroute around the conflict area without diverting to other airports. With Israel and Iran maintaining a ceasefire, the likelihood of additional disruptions is now lower. 

But generally speaking, it’s gotten harder over the last few years to fly between Europe and Asia, owing to a variety of conflicts in several different regions. 

Russia’s airspace has been closed to most Western airlines since that country’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Indian and Chinese-flagged carriers still have access to the airspace, giving them routing advantages on long-haul flights from their home countries to Europe and North America, while Western airlines must route around Russia, adding additional hours of flight time, incurring more fuel and labor costs. 

This isn’t the first time Russian airspace has been out of bounds for the West. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union placed strict limits on its airspace, requiring Western carriers to operate their flights to East Asia to the south, via stopovers in India, or over the North Pole, via stopovers in Anchorage, Alaska. 

There were even times when the Cold War turned hot. In 1978, the Soviet Air Force shot down a Korean Air Lines (KAL) flight from Paris to Anchorage, forcing the aircraft to land on a frozen lake near Murmansk, killing two onboard and injuring dozens of others. In 1983, another KAL flight was shot down over Russia’s Sakhalin Island, this time with the loss of all 269 onboard. Five years later, the U.S. Navy accidentally shot down an Iran Air airliner in the Persian Gulf with a similar loss of life.

Today, aircraft have the range to fly nonstop, even with routing changes adding thousands of miles to the journey. U.S. carriers’ flights to India and China from the United States that once flew over Russia must now route via Europe for India, or the Sea of Japan for China, adding an hour or two to the flight time. 

Although Indian carriers have access to Russian airspace, they have another hurdle to contend with on flights to Europe—the bilateral airspace closure with their neighbor, Pakistan, which has simmering disagreements over the disputed region of Kashmir. 

Airlines have good reason to avoid airspace in conflict zones. A Malaysia Airlines jet was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014, and an Azerbaijan Airlines plane was likely hit by Russia’s air defense systems on a flight to Russia from its own country in December. That aircraft crashed while attempting to divert to an airport in nearby Kazakhstan. 

The redrawing of airlines’ operational specifications does more than just inconvenience passengers and crews onboard. Lasting routing changes that compromise the overall profitability of the flight can cause airlines to abandon routes altogether, leaving passengers with fewer nonstop options or none at all, requiring stopovers to reach their destinations. 

Many U.S. airlines have suspended flights to Israel until mid-summer out of an abundance of caution, while other airlines have experienced additional impacts on flights transiting the Gulf Region. In late June, two ultra-long Qantas flights from Australia to Europe were diverted because of airspace closures in the Middle East: a Perth-to-Paris flight turned back, spending 15 hours in the air for a round-trip journey to its point of origin. Another flight from Perth to London was diverted to Singapore. 

The New York Times reports that 4.5% of the world’s landmass is affected by conflict, up 65% since 2021, according to a report issued last year, which may not account for the Israel-Iran conflict.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) manages airspace restrictions for U.S.-flagged aircraft and airlines carrying the marketing code of U.S.-certificated airlines around the world, and many of those restrictions are spurred by conflict-related threats to safe aircraft operations. Many other countries have similar restrictions for their own airlines, so passengers are largely assured that the governments overseeing the airlines they fly are constantly monitoring the risks. The airlines also monitor risks in airspace that their aircraft may transit, and also implement their own, more restrictive policies. 

Nevertheless, as long as armed conflict continues—regardless of region—the impacts on commercial aviation will likely also continue.