The war has shifted global travel patterns.
In recent weeks, the world has become more unstable and unpredictable. The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has upended global travel, and patterns are shifting as tourists seek alternative destinations. Shrinking airspace and escalating travel advisories have caused a ripple effect: travelers are turning away from the Gulf and Asia and looking to Europe.
Shifting Patterns
Despite rising costs, Americans maintain their appetite for travel. According to AAA, the top international destinations for spring breakers are Italy, France, and Mexico. However, travel plans may change this year if the war continues. The U.S. State Department advised Americans to leave 14 countries in the Middle East earlier this month, listing them under Level 4: Do Not Travel or Level 3: Reconsider Travel advisories. In these conditions, travelers are more likely to avoid the region in favor of other destinations. Europe is the main contender.
Demand for Europe has increased following the war in Iran. Eduardo Santander, CEO of the European Travel Commission, said that Europe is a reliable travel option in times of uncertainty. “Historically, Europe has been seen as a stable and reliable destination during periods of global uncertainty, and there are early signs that this perception remains intact.” In his opinion, Mediterranean destinations in Europe are most likely to benefit.
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Other experts also expect travel trends to shift to Europe, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific.
Related: With Conflict in the Middle East, Is It Safe to Travel to Europe?
European travelers, in particular, prefer to stick to mainland Europe rather than travel too far from home. Among Dutch travelers, interest is already spiking in Greece, Spain, and Portugal, while tourists from the U.K. are also looking at Croatia, Malta, and long-haul trips to the Caribbean. The Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cape Verde, and Phuket are among other destinations seeing increased demand. Meanwhile, Cyprus has seen a slowdown in travel after a drone attack on a British military base in March. Turkey and Egypt are also affected by the war.
Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air expects the war in Iran to divert traffic from the Middle East to Europe. CEO Jozsef Varadi told Bloomberg, “Given the risks of connecting traffic, especially through the Middle East, it will make people rethink whether Asia is the right place to go or whether they should just stay in Europe.” The airline has redirected its planes from the Middle East to Europe, focusing on destinations including Spain, Portugal, Croatia, and Italy through September.
The head of Irish low-cost airline Ryanair echoed the sentiment. Micheal O’Leary said in a press conference, “We’ve seen, certainly, there’s a big collapse in bookings to the Middle East, and a big surge in bookings on short-haul airlines within Europe.”
Kenya Airlines also reported increased demand since the conflict from Europe, the United States, and parts of Asia.
Global Disruptions
The United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and the chain of events has hammered global travel. The Middle East established itself as a travel hub over the past decade, accounting for 14% of global transit traffic; now it is out of bounds for fliers. With connecting hubs in Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai no longer functional, international airlines have canceled numerous flights to the Middle East. Lufthansa, Air Canada, British Airways, Air India, Virgin Atlantic, and KLM have all trimmed their schedules and rerouted flights. Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways have limited options, so travelers with prior bookings are scrambling to find seats on other airlines. Airlines are also avoiding airspace over the Middle East. If you track a flight from Asia to Europe, you’ll see major gaps where planes once flew.
The Middle East has been losing €515 million a day since the war began. Countries worldwide have issued travel advisories against visiting the region, so it may see up to 38 million fewer visitors and lose up to $56 billion in visitor spending after experiencing annual growth in tourist numbers.
The impact of geopolitics on travel cannot be denied. The war in the Gulf has sent markets tumbling, and the travel industry is not immune. Another consequence of the war has been rising jet fuel prices. The Strait of Hormuz—which transports 20% of the world’s oil—is blocked by Iran, sending fuel prices soaring globally. Airlines are already feeling the squeeze and passing some of the costs to customers.
Meanwhile, airlines are trying to fill the gaps left by Gulf carriers. Singapore Airlines has added a flight to London through August after canceling its Dubai route, while Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific is also increasing capacity for its Zurich leg and adding more flights to London. The airline made this decision after seeing a surge in demand for Europe.
The U.S.-Iran war has entered its fourth week. With communication cut off, the death toll in Iran is unconfirmed, but a human rights group estimates that 1,400 people have died, including more than 200 children. There have been casualties in other Gulf countries as well, including Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE. At least 13 U.S. military personnel have been killed, and the war has cost the United States $11.3 billion in the first week, with the Pentagon seeking $200 billion to fund the conflict.