European airports warn of a looming jet fuel shortage that could trigger flight cancellations and higher ticket prices as supply disruptions continue.
European airports are just weeks away from a jet fuel shortage that could result in flight cancellations if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, Airports Council International (ACI) Europe said in a letter to the EU’s energy and transport commissioners late last week.
Since the Iran War began in late February, closing the Strait of Hormuz in March, jet fuel prices have skyrocketed, sending airlines around the world scrambling to increase revenues to offset the higher costs of flying. Now, regulators are saying some flights will instead be cancelled because airports—particularly those in Europe—will have difficulty sourcing fuel if the Gulf region supply chain remains disrupted by the war.
“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” was a passage from the letter reported by The Guardian.
Jet fuel prices in Europe are up 138% year-over-year, making the region somewhat less hit than Asia, which is more dependent on Gulf region oil supplies and has seen a 163% year-over-year increase in jet fuel prices.
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Airlines worldwide have already taken some flights off their schedules because of the increase in fuel costs, which rendered some routes unsustainable. Airlines, including Qantas, Air New Zealand, Vietnam Airlines, SAS, and Delta Air Lines, have reduced some flying as a result of the spike in jet fuel costs. Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, has said they’re considering a 10% decrease in flights this summer.
A spokesperson for Ryanair told The Times of London that their fuel suppliers have only been able to guarantee supply until mid-May, and that a lengthy closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have significant impacts on the availability of fuel at airports in its European network.
Four airports in Italy have already implemented restrictions on jet fuel deliveries because of low stocks, saying that priority would be given to ambulance and government flights, and for flights of more than three hours in duration. Airport officials at the four airports in the north of the country downplayed the situation, saying there were no restrictions on fuel deliveries at all for long-haul flights, which would eliminate any possibility for disruption on flights to and from North America.
The last tankers that left the Gulf region before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are just now arriving at ports in Europe. Europe derives more than 60% of its jet fuel from the Gulf Region; some 40% of the total supply is shipped through the now-shuttered Strait. Jet fuel is uniquely sensitive to shipping disruptions because refined fuels have fewer alternative transport methods (like pipelines) available.
ACI Europe encouraged the EU commissioners to temporarily lift some restrictions on jet fuel imports and implement a bloc-wide collective for buying jet fuel. “There is for now no EU-wide mapping/assessment and monitoring of jet fuel production and availability,” said the ACI Europe letter,” reported by the Financial Times.
The EU has had sanctions on Russian petroleum products since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has already weakened the supply reliability of jet fuel for European airports, and made those airports even more dependent on supplies shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
Airlines that have maintained their schedules have raised fares or added fuel surcharges to their flights. U.S. airports and airlines are less dependent on fuel supplies from the Gulf Region, but shortages at airports in Europe could still impact U.S. airlines that serve those airports. With demand for air travel remaining strong into the summer months, fewer flights could ultimately mean higher airfares for travelers who have not yet bought their tickets.